More than ever, the medium is the message

More than ever, the medium is the message By David McKie, director of communications and strategy for MoodLogic.com (1/19/01) In his day, Marshall McLuhan was scorned by his critics as a loopy "boob tube guru." But his theory that the medium is the message has never rung more true than it does today. People pay a different kind of attention to messages (which, in this column, means music content) based on the medium that delivers them. We consume both medium and message as a unified experience. As McLuhan noted, "People don't actually read newspapers--they get into them every morning like a hot bath," thereby blending the ritual pleasures of page-turning with an interest in news as entertainment. The guru's voice echoes into our own era, especially in the realm of online music. Specifically, McLuhan's lens makes one wonder how the digital music medium will transform the experience of music itself, for both listeners and music providers, in the coming years. Sure, its impact will be huge, but exactly what will that impact be? Driving by the rearview mirror One thing is certain: We won't divine that impact by applying our past knowledge to the present crisis or by projecting today's industry--its players, businesses, technology, and media--into the future. Again, McLuhan hit the point: Most people still cling to the rearview-mirror view of the world. Because of the invisibility of any environment during the period of its innovation, man is only consciously aware of the environment that has preceded it; in other words, an environment becomes fully visible only when it has been superceded by a new environment; thus we are always one step behind in our view of the world. No wonder we keep awakening each morning--and sinking into the hot bath of our music trade press--to discover new companies announcing new media technologies that could change everything about music consumption. These ideas could change how fans seek out new music, obtain and pay for it, play it back, actively modify what they hear, and share it with other listeners. Finally, if the medium truly is the message, these changes will alter what music itself means in our culture. Improving our vision No, if we budding futurologists want to think outside of our music box and experience the future before it happens, perhaps we should pay a little less attention to the din of unfolding events. Instead, we should listen carefully to the future that innovators are committed to creating. Perversely, for a change, we should listen to what these people say--their vision--instead of what they do. If we hear an emerging agreement in the ambitions of music technologists, a convergence of the pictures in their heads, then we might find some inkling of the path ahead. After slogging through the last year's worth of digital music trade shows and publications, here are some of the most intriguing messages left ringing in my ears about the future of music in new media. More music for all First, I hear a spreading optimism that digital media will increase the overall consumption of music. Music is enormously important to the emotional lives of most people, yet they spend surprisingly little money on it per year and (thanks largely to the lameness of today's broadcast formats) hear a far narrower range of selections than they would actually enjoy. Consequently, average Americans drop no more than $70 per year to buy a handful of new CDs. The worldwide market for music sales is no more than $40 billion--a relatively small sum in the industrial world. But within just a few years, say the visionaries, spending on music could more than double. So many technologists are racing to build the jukebox in the sky, which will be an all-you-can-eat service, providing music on demand over wireless broadband systems for only $10 to $20 per month. From Napster to the record labels to the ISPs, all the big players are exploring subscription models that would result in the public consuming more music of greater variety. Convergence of medium and message Second, I see electronics and hardware companies (makers of stereos, MP3 players, and PCs) and music content providers (businesses that distribute music through sales and subscriptions) beginning to bump into each other as each moves toward the same space. These two market segments--if you will, the medium and the message--should become increasingly entangled with each other. The music itself, as well as the services and hardware that make it available, will move toward such a highly symbiotic relationship that we will find it difficult to talk about one without implicitly referring to the other. Choosing in a world of infinite choice Third, from every corner, I hear that this increasingly merged music content and delivery sector will vastly increase the music library available to consumers. If so, then all of the new music services will face the same essential challenges: How can they help people navigate and manage access to millions of songs quickly and conveniently? And how can they aid consumers in discovering new music that they might like? MoodLogic, the company that I work for, was created to master this challenge. As an inside observer, I can tell you that both the hurdles and the potential for effective music-management systems are enormous and that, yes, such systems will become a medium that shapes the message. Yet MoodLogic's contributions will provide only one piece of a large, complex, ever-morphing puzzle, which reminds me of another persistent theme that I hear from music industry futurists. Unlike other industries in which monopolies can dominate (a certain Redmond start-up comes to mind), the digital music industry will emerge only through the elaborate, interlocking collaboration of more, oddly different players than anyone can possibly keep track of. A shared vision of the future is the only thing that keeps these strange bedfellows moving down the same road together. Together, they'll create a sort of music-topia, in which new digital technologies (and their consequent innovations in copyright and licensing law) shorten the commercial and emotional distance between thousands of artists and millions of listeners. Speaking of odd fellows, Senator Orrin Hatch echoed this same hope last week in his address to the Coalition for the Future of Music: As all this experimentation shakes out, I hope that overall, artists and their fans will be able to say that this time of change eventually made things better for both of them. Without the artist, there is no content to convey; and without the consumer, there is no business to convey it. Let's roll up our sleeves and work together to make it happen. Essentially, what he's saying is that there can be no medium without a message and no message without a medium. Somewhere out there, McLuhan is smiling.